Punxsutawney Phil’s statistics are kept by the Pennsylvania’s Groundhog Club which cares for the animal. Phil has predicted 103 forecasts for winter and just 17 for an early spring.  Most assessments of Phil’s accuracy have given accuracy lower than would be expected with random chance, with Stormfax Almanac giving an estimate of 39%, and meteorologist Tim Roche of Weather Underground giving a 36% accuracy rate between 1969 and 2016 (a range chosen because local weather data was most reliable from 1969 onward) and a 47% record in that time span when predicting early spring.  The National Centers for Environmental Information, using a basic metric of above-normal temperatures for early spring and below-normal temperatures for more winter, placed Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy at 40% for the ten-year period preceding 2019.  Other poor results from analysis are reported by the Farmer’s Almanac (which itself has been known for forecasts of questionable accuracy) as “exactly 50 percent” accuracy, and The National Geographic Society reporting only 28% success.  But a Middlebury College team found that a long-term analysis of temperature high/low predictions were 70% accurate, although when the groundhog predicted early spring it was usually wrong.  Canadian meteorologist Cindy Day has estimated that Nova Scotia’s “Shubenacadie Sam” has an accuracy rate of about 45% compared to 25% for Wiarton Willy in Ontario. 
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