Punxsutawney Phil’s statistics are kept by the Pennsylvania’s Groundhog Club which cares for the animal. Phil has predicted 103 forecasts for winter and just 17 for an early spring. [70] Most assessments of Phil’s accuracy have given accuracy lower than would be expected with random chance, with Stormfax Almanac giving an estimate of 39%,[71] and meteorologist Tim Roche of Weather Underground giving a 36% accuracy rate between 1969 and 2016 (a range chosen because local weather data was most reliable from 1969 onward) and a 47% record in that time span when predicting early spring. [70] The National Centers for Environmental Information, using a basic metric of above-normal temperatures for early spring and below-normal temperatures for more winter, placed Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy at 40% for the ten-year period preceding 2019. [72] Other poor results from analysis are reported by the Farmer’s Almanac (which itself has been known for forecasts of questionable accuracy) as “exactly 50 percent” accuracy,[73] and The National Geographic Society reporting only 28% success. [74] But a Middlebury College team found that a long-term analysis of temperature high/low predictions were 70% accurate, although when the groundhog predicted early spring it was usually wrong. [75] Canadian meteorologist Cindy Day has estimated that Nova Scotia’s “Shubenacadie Sam” has an accuracy rate of about 45% compared to 25% for Wiarton Willy in Ontario. [76]

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